Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction

The Art and Science of Prediction

English language

Published Feb. 20, 2015 by Penguin Random House.

ISBN:
978-1-84794-714-7
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.

5 editions

Review of Superforecasting

Superforecasting tells the story of psychologist Philip Tetlock’s project to systematically evaluate the predictions of experts. What exactly does an advisor mean when they tell the President that a military operation has a “good chance” of being successful? It wasn’t so long ago that no one thought to even ask such a question, and as Tetlock shows, the consequences couldn’t be more real. Tetlock’s work led to the development of the Good Judgement project, a forecasting competition designed to identify the characteristics of “superforecasters”, individuals with a quantifiable talent for predicting how world events will unfold. It’s a great book, and one I was partly inspired to read because of my involvement in a student forecasting tournament based on the Good Judgement project (where our students took first and second place overall!)

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Subjects

  • Forecasting
  • Economic forecasting